The market price of toluene is showing a weak and oscillating trend. In some regions, such as Shandong and the East China ports, prices are under significant pressure due to high inventory levels. The market is still in a stage of consolidation at low levels after a prolonged downturn.
The domestic toluene operating rate remains high, with facilities such as those at Shijiazhuang Refinery resuming production after maintenance, coupled with persistently high inventory levels at East China ports, resulting in significant supply pressure. Downstream industries, including PTA and TDI, are operating at low load levels, and the profits from disproportionation are weak, leading to sluggish demand growth. Although the market briefly rebounded after the China-U.S. tariff agreement in May, it lacked sustained support. Currently, downstream manufacturers are primarily purchasing based on rigid demand, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing.
In the short term, toluene market prices are likely to remain stagnant, with limited upside potential. If international crude oil prices fail to rebound effectively or if downstream operating rates continue to remain low, there is a risk of further price declines.
